Turnout: 48.60%

Overview

The Portuguese legislative election of 6 October 2019 returned António Costa's Socialist Party (PS) to power with a strengthened mandate after four years of the geringonça, the left-wing parliamentary alliance that had governed since 2015. The PS won comfortably but again fell short of an absolute majority, leaving Costa to navigate a more fluid parliament in which several small parties — including, for the first time, the radical right — won seats.

The political system

Portugal's 230-seat Assembly of the Republic is elected every four years by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method in 22 constituencies (the 18 districts, the Azores, Madeira and two for emigrants). Governments require the confidence of the Assembly rather than a formal majority, which is why minority cabinets are common. The President, elected separately, formally appoints the prime minister on the basis of the election result. In 2019 the incumbent President was Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a centre-right figure who had nonetheless worked smoothly with Costa's government.

The campaign

Costa campaigned on a record of economic recovery: falling unemployment, a return to budget surplus and the reversal of austerity-era cuts, while promising continued moderation. The Social Democrats (PSD), now led by Rui Rio after Passos Coelho's departure, struggled to define a distinctive message against a popular government in good economic times. On the left, the Left Bloc and the CDU defended their role in the outgoing arrangement. New and smaller forces — the liberal Iniciativa Liberal (IL), the eco-socialist Livre, and the new radical-right Chega led by André Ventura — sought their first parliamentary footholds.

The result

The PS won 36.35% and 108 seats, a gain of 22 that left it eight short of a majority. The PSD slipped to 27.77% and 79 seats. The big losers were the parties of the geringonça's radical left: the Left Bloc held 9.52% and 19 seats but the CDU fell to 6.34% and 12. The CDS–PP collapsed to 4.22% and five seats, beginning a crisis that would later cost it all its MPs. PAN rose to four seats, while Chega, Iniciativa Liberal and Livre each won a single seat — a fragmentation of the party system that would accelerate. The PS led almost everywhere; the PSD retained only northern and interior bastions (Bragança, Vila Real, Viseu, Leiria) and the island of Madeira.

Aftermath

Costa formed a second minority government, this time without the formal written accords of 2015, governing case by case with shifting majorities. The arrangement grew increasingly fractious, and in late 2021 the Left Bloc and the Communists voted against the government's budget — an unprecedented rupture that triggered the dissolution of parliament and the snap election of January 2022.

Compiled and reviewed by Bartłomiej Paruzel, Election Data Analyst, from official results. See our data methodology.

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